wholesale jewelry suppliers thailand Failure tightening often accompanies the comprehensive decline in prices, and the people's living standards are relatively improved. Therefore, currency tightening is better than inflation. Is it correct, explain the reason?

wholesale chanel jewelry replica The tightening of currency, as an economic phenomenon relative to inflation, according to the definition of economic textbooks popular abroad, refers to the continuous decline in general price levels. For example, the definition of definition of currency tightening in its 16th edition of Samuelson and Nordhaus is the continuous decline in the total level of price; Stiglitz's currency tightening in his "Economics" textbooks Definition also refers to the continuous decline of the general price level; the representative of monetism, Redler, in the popular "New Pargrav Finance Dictionary". The process, which is relative to inflation "and other", these methods that define and judge the tightening of currency in accordance with the continuous decline of prices, basically reflect the mainstream views of Western economics, and they are also extensive in China. In a general sense, to understand the concept of deflation, it is necessary to grasp it from the following two aspects: the first is the general price level, that is, the price level of most goods and labor, which has universal significance. The decline in any single or part of the commodity and labor prices does not necessarily constitute a deflation. Because the decline in some commodities and labor prices may be offset or even exceeds the rise in other commodities and labor prices, it is possible that some commodities and labor prices have fallen and contain most of the general price levels of goods and labor. The situation, and the tightness of the currency is a basic economic phenomenon. Like inflation, it is also a macro -level problem. Therefore, only when the price level with a general significance decreases, it can constitute currency tightening. In actual operation, the consumer price index (CPI) of residential consumer prices (CPI) is usually used. The second is that the general price level continues to decline. If the price level of a country or one area decreases within a short period of time, but then it will be reversed or the price will decrease by accident due to some reason. All these should not be regarded as a deflation. It is generally believed that when the total price level continues to decline for more than two quarters, it is considered a sign of likes to have a synonym. Of course, due to the different economic environment of various countries, how long the general price level continues to fall before it can be judged that it is not a unified standard for deflation, but it should be dependent on the specific situation of various countries.
The measures for deflation
Since the tightness of the currency refers to the continuous decline of the general price level, then what indicators are used to measure the general price level and the continuous decline of the price. Two basic issues of measurement. Let's analyze it separately.
. The selection of general price level measurement indicators According to statistical practice, there are many indicators to measure the general price level, such as the reduction index of the total national production value, the retail price index of the commodity See Appendix 1). Theoretically, the first index is the most comprehensive, but because its statistical cycle is the longest, it lasts only to the quarter, and it is not convenient to monitor the monthly changes in real -time monitoring prices. Therefore, this indicator is not often used. For the second index, because the service items are not included, the effectiveness of its effectiveness is greatly reduced. Therefore, general countries have used it as a assistant reference indicator. The third producer price index (PPI) and the fourth consumer price index (CPI) are the two most often used indexes in the practice of various countries. They each have their own advantages. Among them Fast than the CPI index, it has a good prediction function, but because the history of PPI statistics in many countries is still relatively short, and lack of certain historical comparability and coherentity, currently countries generally use the CPI index as the preferred indicator of the total level of measurement prices. , And use the PPI index as a predictive reference indicator.
It the measurement index of the total price level, we also need to choose the calculation method of the CPI index, that is, the problem of using the year -on -year index or the month -on -month index. This is important because different CPI calculation methods often show certain deviations when judging the tightness of the currency. For example, sometimes it can be judged as a tightness according to the year -on -year index, but it is not in the case of a month -on -month index. It may even be in the inflation stage, vice versa. In fact, the two have their own strengths, we cannot generalize. At present, the most widely used year -on -year index has comparable advantages, but due to the lack of monthly comparisons, it is slightly not enough to accurately. The opposite index is the opposite, which is conducive to researchers to better grasp the continuous trend of prices in the monthly changes, but the seasonality of the monthly data is significant and has a poor comparable. For example, in my country (see Appendix 2), the CPI index of several months before and after the Spring Festival is generally higher than the CPI of the ordinary month throughout the year, even in 1997 to 2000 that occurred in a tightness. Therefore, before using this indicator, first adjustment of seasonal factors should be made. In addition, the monthly adjustment of monthly data is needed to be converted to fixed -base sequences to improve the comparability and accuracy of the monthly data. This requires further improvement of statistical technology. Therefore, if it is only for general analysis, the year -on -year index is sufficient, but if further professional analysis is needed, it is best to use the month -on -month index to improve accuracy. rn二、物价水平下跌幅度和持续期限的度量在选择了物价水平的度量指标及其计算方法后，接下来需要确定的就是到底价格下跌幅度有多大，持续时间有多久才可判断为The problem of tight currency. Generally, from the perspective of the decline in price, as long as the inflation rate is less than 1, and there is a trend of further decline, it can be confirmed that the price of goods has been tightened, because the price of goods is affected by the improvement of product quality and improvement of functional improvement. Generally, the official official It is estimated that it is a percentage point. This is the conclusion that the British "Economist" magazine's long -term research on the price level of many countries in the world ①. Secondly, from the time of price decline, it is generally believed that the total price levels have continued to decline more than two quarters or more. At more than quarters, it often exceeds the ability of self -buffering adjustment of the economy itself. For example, from the perspective of investment, when the inventory of enterprises has continued to increase to more than two quarters, the new investment impulse will be suppressed. When falling, consumers may postpone the purchase activities of the current period, so as to be purchased or increased savings with coins. In this way, the current investment and consumer demand will decline. Normal economic order is interrupted. May follow. Therefore, combined with the calculation method of the above index, we can think that if it is only for general research, then consumer prices have continued to decline for more than two consecutive quarters. Then consumer prices have fallen by more than two quarters from the previous quarter, which can be considered tightening.
The discrimination of the relationship between currency tightening and other economic phenomena
This has not been noticed by the economics community for a long time, and the impact of this economic phenomenon on people has only begun to appear in the past ten years. Compared with inflation, currency tightening can be regarded as a relatively strange field. Therefore, while people understand this economic phenomenon in depth, they often have a lot of errors, and they are likely to be confused with other economic phenomena or behaviors. To this end, this article has made a simple analysis on the following four aspects.
. The relationship between the tightness of the real economy and the currency tightening of the virtual economy is as mentioned earlier. The currency tightening we mentioned generally refers to the deflation of the real economy, which includes the total price of most commodities and labor prices. The level of continuous decline, while the virtual economy or asset price (the asset price here usually refers to the stock price), the deflation of the stock price is the extension of the real economy's deflation in other economic fields. There are both differences and connections between the two. Generally speaking, the deflation of the real economy often occurs in the time before the virtual economy tightening, especially in the early stage of the tightness caused by the excess production capacity. Because of the continuous decline in prices, the supply of suppliers intensify, corporate profits space is generally generally being affected Squeezing, the decline in the capital profit margin of the unit, which led to a large amount of capital inflow into the capital market, the stock price continued to innovate, and further expanded the gap with the industrial profit margin, thereby absorbing more industrial capital inflows and forming the stock market bubble. In this way, once the bubble is crushed, the tightness of the asset price starts. At this time, if the capital market of a country is more developed and plays an important role in the national economy, the sharp decline in stock prices will inevitably be fed back to the real economy in a timely manner through the wealth effect, leading to the decline in current consumption and investment, and and and and that and and and. It may impact the financial system of a country, leading to increased financial risks, many problems such as bank credit shrinkage, and difficulty in financing difficulties, thereby promoting further currency tightening of the real economy. Therefore, when the tightness of the currency is at the gentle stage at the beginning of the period, if it is not treated in a timely and effective governance, then the real economy is likely to fall into a more severe currency tightening through this approach and a comprehensive decline of the economy. Here, the irrational expansion of asset prices and the tightening of subsequent currency have actually played a role in some kind of warning.
. The relationship between currency tightening and currency supply is in China. The theoretical world has had a fierce debate on the concept of currency tightening. One of the views that the reduction of monetary supply should be used as an important criterion for the tightening of currency. It is too simple to judge the tightening of currency at the single standard of the total price level of the total price. Only when the characteristics of the currency supply continue to decline, the economic decline and other characteristics of the general price will continue to decline. Grasp its inner essence. Obviously, when judging the tightness of the currency, the triple standard is used here. However, in fact, the two standards of the decline in currency supply and the comprehensive economic recession are not necessarily the characteristics of currency tightening. The increase in currency supply and economic growth can also coexist with currency. For example, between 1998 and 1999, the total price level increased negatively for more than 20 consecutive months, but the economy still increased rapidly. It was only slower than the previous high-speed growth. Decreased significantly increased. The reason can be based on Fei Xue's trading equation MV = PY (where M is the number of currency, V is the speed of currency circulation, P is the general price level, and y is the actual national product value) : ⊿p/p = /m/m ⊿V/v-⊿y/y, in this formula, the currency circulation speed V decreases, the reason: the first is the monetization process of my country ①; the second is the short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term The tightening of the currency increases the marginal yield of the currency and the motivation to hold the currency. Therefore, ⊿V/V is less than zero. In the case of maintaining positive economic growth (⊿y/y> 0), we can launch (⊿v/V-) The symbol of y/y is negative. Therefore, it can be simply concluded from the upper formula: To continue the price of prices, ⊿m/m is not determined to be negative, as long as the growth rate of the currency supply is lower than that of the decline in the currency circulation and the economic growth rate, This is in line with economic reality. On the other hand, if we also consider the capital market's demand for currency, then Feixue's trading equation can be changed to: MV = PY S (where S is the capital market's demand for currency). Here, we assume that V and Y are unchanged, so we can easily draw such a conclusion from this formula: that is, when the increase in currency demand for the capital market is greater than the increase in the amount of currency supply (such as when the relative yield rate of the capital market increases) The total price level may obviously fall in a unilateral decline, and this conclusion is basically in line with the actual situation in the tightening tightening of our country from 1997 to 2000. At that time, the price continued to be innovative, but the stock index was constantly innovating high. Therefore, whether the decrease in currency supply was not a sufficient necessary condition to determine whether the currency tightening occurred, and it should also consider the change of its relative amount.
. The relationship between currency tightening and economic recession Speaking of currency tightness, people often associate it with the great crisis in the 1930s and the economic crisis of Japan in the 1990s. And it is a serious comprehensive recession, and there are no few scholars holding this view. However, the author believes that the economic recession must be accompanied by currency tightening, but the tightening of currency is not necessarily accompanied by a comprehensive economic recession. It seems that it should be a growth of growth (that is, the economic growth rate has declined, but it does not bear the growth). This is the point. It can also be obtained from Fei Xue's trading equation. For simplicity, we assume that V remains unchanged, then ⊿P/p = ⊿m/m-⊿y/y. Obviously, there is a more common situation here: economic growth rate (⊿/y) is greater than zero than zero than zero. The growth rate of currency supply is also greater than zero, but its growth rate is lower than the former, which has restricted the further growth of the output due to the relatively decreased currency supply, which has led to a decline in economic growth and the continuous decline in prices. And some scholars' so -called comprehensive economic recession is an extreme special case. It only greatly shrinks the currency supply growth rate of the currency supply in some reasons for some reasons. It is possible that this kind of economic growth has declined sharply or even negative, and prices have fallen. Of course, these two kinds of currency tightening do have a close relationship. When the economy is at a mild deflation or at the beginning of the currency tightening, its impact on the substantial economy is not great. It can still be reversed, but once this trend has continued and has formed strong expectations, and there is no appropriate governance measures in terms of policy, then the economy is likely to fall into a comprehensive decline. At that time When the level of price decreases, it often means that the economic growth rate is still positive. Some scholars believe that the so -called currency tightening must be accompanied by the situation of recession (⊿y/y u003C0), which is only possible when the currency supply has declined significantly. For example The tightening and currency policy of the significant reduction of monetary supply during the period is an excellent example of this special situation. Obviously, these scholars ignore the more common and more commonly appeared, more representative, and more representative of the tightening type type. Essence
. The relationship between currency tightening and inflation, and the tightening monetary policy is essentially three different concepts. Deflation refers to the continuous decline of general price levels, and the concept of inflation is just the opposite. It refers to the continuous rise in general price levels, and both are an economic state and economic phenomenon. The tightening monetary policy is completely different from the previous two. It refers to the policy measures that increase interest rates and reduce monetary supply, etc., and are a measure to treat inflation. But there is a subtle connection between them. If it is described by a coin, then currency tightening and inflation are the two sides of this coin, and the tightening currency policy is the currency material connecting the two. When inflation is inflation, a country's currency authorities often take the initiative to adopt a tightening monetary policy to deal with inflation. However, due to the complexity of the latter problems and the effect of the effectiveness of the monetary policy, there are often decision makers that cannot be timely. The correct judgment of the economic environment has led to the other side of the economy to the other side of coins -currency tightening. For example, in the mid -1990s, in the mid -1990s, in order to deal with severe inflation, my country implemented a double tight fiscal and monetary policy, and successfully realized "soft landing" in 1996. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, its situation is even more severe, but at this time, my country's decision -making level has not adjusted its original tightening policy in a timely manner, resulting in inertial decline in prices and output. The experience of lacking the new phenomenon of dealing with the tightening of the decision -making layer has a direct relationship.
The cause analysis of the tightening of currency tightness
The curriculum tightening, as a basic economic phenomenon, like inflation, its formation is diverse. It may be related to both tightening monetary policy, or it may be caused by factors such as technological progress, excess production capacity, and effective demand that is not enough to do the lack of efficiency of a country. Different reasons increase the complexity of currency tightening problems itself, and add difficulty to understand and understand this economic phenomenon in depth.
The first section of tightening monetary policy may lead to currency tightening
The form of change in the form of Feixue trading equations: ⊿p/p = ⊿m/m ⊿V/v-⊿y/y, assuming The initial conditions of the economy are normal, that is, the state of a country's economy is in a reasonable positive growth state in the beginning of the period (⊿y/y> 0), and the currency circulation speed V slowly decreases with the long -term monetization process. In order to facilitate the analysis, we assume that it does not keep it. Change, this can be changed to: 式p/p = ⊿m/m -⊿y/y. From this style, we can clearly see that as long as the first item on the right of the equal formula is less than the second, that is, as long as the growth rate of the currency supply is lower than the economic growth rate, the price will fall. At this time, if a country's currency authorities, for some reason, for example, to continue to adopt this tightening monetary policy in order to deal with the serious inflation problems in the early stage, then it will inevitably make the price continue to fall and form a tightening. If this tightening currency policy is more intensive, that is, when the currency supply increases negatively (⊿m/m u003C0), then it can be seen from this formula that the total price of the price will decline significantly, forming a serious deflation, so The consequences have also appeared in history, and it is still memorable. For example, in the 1930s, the tightening of the currency in the United States in the 1930s was because the Federal Reserve greatly reduced the money supply at that time to deal with the stock market. The speculative bubbles have caused significant decline in production prices and consumption expenditures. The company has risen sharply, and the unemployment rate has risen. The actual and expected income of residents decreases, resulting in a weak investment and consumption. The formation of malignant currency tightening and eventually evolved into a comprehensive economic decline. So how does this happen, that is, what is its conduction mechanism? According to the theory of Tombin's asset selection, the author believes that when a country's currency authorities shrink the currency, the marginal yield of the currency will rise. At this time It will constantly adjust the asset structure and turn its
The financial assets and physical assets into a relatively higher rate of money assets, so the entire economy has emerged from
Until the market's new asset selection balance. In this way, the adjustment of the asset structure not only directly leads to the decrease in the current demand for financial assets and physical assets, and the price of prices, and it will eventually affect the decline in the total price of prices through the weakening of investment and consumption, forming currency tightening.
therefore, the tightening monetary policy is like a double -edged sword. Its front can effectively treat inflation, but its negative side may become a booster of currency tightening