printed jewelry boxes wholesale What is the impact of the Sino -US trade war on foreign exchange?

reddit wholesale jewelry I. Trade war and market trend review
Since the Sino -US trade friction in July 2018, the scale of the United States has continued to expand its tariffs on China, and China has also taken corresponding countermeasures. Over the past year, the two countries have conducted several rounds of economic and trade consultations, and China and the United States have become the new normal.
(1) Initially at the beginning of trade friction, the RMB depreciated by 5.6%
In July 2018, the United States imposed a 25%tariff on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion. Receive equivalent tariffs to countercubation. As of November 2018, the RMB against the US dollar from 6.6 to 6.97, depreciating about 3700 points; the US dollar index slowly rose from 94 to the high point of 97 during the year.
(2) The trade friction eased, the renminbi recovered to the land, and rose to 6.67
In November 2018, the heads of state of China and the United States reached a consensus of temporary truce at the G20 summit and opened a 90 -day negotiation period. In the first four months of 2019, China and the United States conducted multiple rounds of economic and trade consultations. With the support of the favorable news of the trade war, the RMB exchange rate appreciated from 6.93 to 6.67, an appreciation of about 2600 points. Essence
(3) The trade war upgraded, the RMB fell to the level of 6.9-7
In May 2019, on the eve of the 11th round of trade negotiations in China and the United States, the United States suddenly announced that it will be on May 10th. The tariffs levied by 100 million US dollars of Chinese goods were raised from 10%to 25%. Affected by this, the RMB depreciated sharply from 6.74 to 6.93, and the US dollar index fell to near 96 at the same time. At the Osaka G20 Summit at the end of June, the heads of state between China and the United States held talks and agreed to restart bilateral economic and trade consultations.
(4) Upgrading the trade war, the RMB exchange rate broke 7
. From July to September 2019, the trade war continued to upgrade and confront. The United States announced on August 2, 2019 that it began 10%tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 300 billion from September 2019. On August 23, 2019, it was announced that it would increase tariffs worth $ 250 billion in Chinese goods from 25%to 30%from October, and at the same time increased the tax rates of US $ 300 billion in Chinese goods from 10%to 15%. Affected by this, the RMB exchange rate on the shore fell to the level of 7.18 and touched the low level in the past 11 years.
(5) Sino -US economic and trade frictions have achieved phased progress. The exchange rate stabilizes near 7
October 2019, China and the United States held the 13th round of economic and trade consultations in Washington, and in agriculture and knowledge Property protection, exchange rates, financial services and other fields have made substantial progress. The ease of the Sino -US trade situation has boosted market risk preferences. The US dollar fell from a high level from a high level and fell below the 7 mark. It is currently shocking near the horizontal disk near 7.
. The follow -up outlook of the trade war
The Sino -US trade friction began in July 2018. The process of trade negotiation between China and the United States was repeated. Although China and the United States announced in October this year that the 13th round of economic and trade consultations reached the first phase of the agreement, from the fact that the trade war was only a means of curbing China's development in the past year. Judging from the current domestic politics and economic environment of China and the United States, the probability of ending trade friction in the short term is still small, and the trade frictions, financial frictions and technological friction between the two countries will continue. On the 27th local time, US President Trump officially signed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Act". The bill signed a negative impact on bilateral relations between China and the United States. It is expected that the economic and trade consultation between the two countries will also adversely affect.
(1) US side
At present, the US economic prospects and labor markets are stable. Although trade frictions have increased economic uncertainty, the economic growth rate remains high. In 2019, the US GDP will exceed $ 21 trillion, and GDP growth is expected to be 2.4%to 2.5%.
The reason for the United States to challenge the trade war is that China has maintained a large number of trade surplus on the United States for a long time; second, China does not comply with the WTO commitment; third, China obtains American technology through unfair means. But in essence, the Trump administration also has two core purpose of the presidential election and comprehensive competition between China and the United States.
1 1. US presidential election
The core goal of the Trump administration is to ensure success in 2020, and the main work is to run around it. In order to win votes, Trump's foreign policy implements "U.S. Priority", maintaining a tough posture in the Sino -US trade war and a series of trade frictions with other allies. If Trump is successful, the Sino -US trade war has the possibility of further intensifying. We should be fully prepared for Trump's second term to the United States and the world.
. Sino -US competition
The United States regards China as a comprehensive competitor. The Democratic Party and Republican Party are consistent with this view. Sino -US trade friction is expected to be a long process, and it has been extended from trade to finance and high -tech. Even if the Democratic candidate was elected in 2020, the probability of the two countries' rapidly reaching an agreement is still small.
(2) China as the side
This Chinese economy has shown strong toughness. At present, the trade war has not caused a great impact on the real economy and trade. Economic growth is the outline, and my country has a long -term confidence and economic foundation for dealing with trade frictions.
1. The economic growth rate has fallen, but it still maintains a higher growth
The growth rate of my country's GDP growth in China in 2018. The total GDP in my country in the first three quarters of 2019 is about 70 trillion yuan, the growth rate It is 6.2%. Although the growth rate of GDP has fallen to a certain extent, compared with other countries and regions, it still maintains a high toughness, and its economic operation is in a reasonable range.
. The trade surplus expanded in trade. Among them, exports were 1.248 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%; imports were 1.043 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.1%; the trade surplus was 2.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.2%.
3. The market development effect has been further improved. The national trade growth of the EU, ASEAN and the “Belt and Road” is strong
In the first three quarters of 2019, the top two major trading opponents in my country are EU and ASEAN, respectively. They were 357 trillion and 3.14 trillion yuan; they increased by 8.6%and 11.5%, respectively; they accounted for 15.6%and 13.7%of my country's total foreign trade.
In addition, the total imports and exports of the countries along the “Belt and Road” were 6.65 trillion, an increase of 9.5%, accounting for 29%of my country's total foreign trade value. The national trade growth rate along the "Belt and Road" countries is higher than the overall growth rate of the country's foreign trade.
. The impact on the RMB foreign exchange trading business
The United States officially signed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Act", making the efforts of the two parties to calm down the Sino -US trade war. Market risk preferences have repeatedly changed, the two -way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate have intensified, and uncertainty risks in the market have increased significantly. The changes in Sino -US trade relations and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts have a greater impact on the exchange rate market, and the difficulty of transaction has increased compared with the previous period.
But from the perspective of China's economic fundamentals and market supply and demand, the current RMB exchange rate is at a relatively reasonable level. In the case where the trade war has not deteriorated significantly, the space for the US dollar at the current point is limited, focusing on the progress of Sino -US trade negotiations and related macroeconomic conditions.
(1) Pay attention to the progress of the trade war
Since October this year, the RMB exchange rate has risen to 6.96, and it is currently stabilizing near "7". Although the current Sino -US trade friction has made certain progress, there is still a long distance to reach an agreement. The Sino -US trade friction has been repeated, and it is expected to further increase the uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate trend. If the Sino -US trade friction occurs significantly, the RMB exchange rate may rebound; if the Sino -US trade friction continues to deteriorate, the RMB exchange rate will depreciate.
(2) Pay attention to the Federal Reserve interest rate cutting expectations
since 2019, the Federal Reserve has three interest rate cuts. The decline in the US dollar and the width of the Sino -US interest spread to the RMB exchange rate will be supported, or it will ease the pressure of the depreciation of the RMB.
At present, the Fed's monetary policy direction is not enough to promote the depreciation of the US dollar, and the US dollar index is more likely to continue high vibration. From the perspective of the international US dollar trend, the RMB has a significant appreciation of the US dollar in the short term.
The above is some of the basic introductions of the editor. I believe that after reading the introduction above, you have a basic understanding. You can go to the foreign exchange sky -eyed trading community to view more knowledge.